why an index, not an opinion
most AI safety rankings are static snapshots. someone asks a chatbot "which jobs are safe?" and publishes the answer as a list. that's not a system — that's a conversation.
hardhat runs a live index. every profession is rescored daily across 4 quantitative dimensions. the scores drift, respond to market signals, and mean-revert — just like any real index.
the index is deterministic: same day = same scores for everyone. there's no personalization, no A/B testing on scores, no black box. if you and a stranger check the same profession on the same day, you see the exact same number.
we built this because someone had to treat career safety like a real market — not a blog post.
the four dimensions
how hard is it for AI to replace this job today? physical work, unpredictable environments, and human judgment score high. desk work with repeatable patterns scores low.
is the labor market for this career growing? based on BLS projections and industry hiring trends. growing demand means the market wants more of you, not less.
does this career pay well? higher wages signal market value and harder-to-replace skill sets. if the market pays a premium, it's because the work is hard to automate.
how volatile is this career? stable careers with consistent demand across economic cycles score higher. boom-bust professions get penalized.
how a score is calculated
baseline
each profession starts with a fundamental score derived from its 4 dimension scores. higher AI resistance = higher baseline. this is the anchor.
daily recalibration
every 24 hours, scores are recalculated with fresh market signal weights, cyclical adjustments, and stochastic drift. no score is ever static.
market correlation
each profession category is mapped to a real-world sector ETF proxy. quarterly sentiment from equities markets adds ~10% weight — connecting career safety to actual economic activity.
mean reversion
extreme scores pull back toward fundamentals over time. a sudden spike doesn't last forever — just like real markets. stability is earned.
stock market correlation
career safety doesn't exist in a vacuum. when the construction sector booms, electricians thrive. when tech stocks crater, software engineers sweat. the index captures this.
every profession category is mapped to a real-world sector ETF proxy — XHB for construction, XLK for tech, XLV for healthcare, VNQ for real estate, and so on. the engine pulls quarterly sentiment data from these proxies and uses it to modulate scores by ~10%.
this isn't a stock ticker. it's a reality anchor. if the market says construction is booming, the index reflects that in electrician and plumber scores. if the market says finance is contracting, those professions feel it too.
no API keys, no live data feeds, no rate limits. the proxy data is embedded directly into the scoring engine and updated quarterly — just enough to keep scores grounded without adding fragile dependencies.
homebuilders ETF. tracks residential construction activity — directly tied to electrician, plumber, hvac, carpenter demand.
technology select sector. when tech spending rises, IT and cybersecurity roles strengthen. when it falls, the first cuts come here.
health care select sector. mirrors demand for nurses, therapists, and healthcare trades across the care economy.
industrials select sector. tracks factory output and industrial demand — directly affects welders, machinists, and technicians.
the outlook tiers
this career is thriving. low AI exposure, strong demand, good pay. you're in the clear.
stable and growing. some AI tools emerging but the core work is safe. keep building skills.
mixed signals. parts of this job are being automated, but it's not dead yet. worth watching closely.
warning signs. significant automation potential. consider upskilling or pivoting while the window is open.
actively being replaced. if this is your career, it's time to pivot. the index doesn't sugarcoat it.
what we don't do
- we don't sell rankings. no profession can pay to score higher.
- we don't make predictions. the index reflects current automation exposure, not future guarantees.
- we don't replace human judgment. scores are a starting point — not financial advice.
- we don't personalize scores. everyone sees the same number on the same day. that's the point.
data sources
bureau of labor statistics
occupation growth projections, employment data, and wage estimates across all major occupation groups.
AI capability research
academic papers, industry reports, and published benchmarks on automation potential across task categories.
industry reports
trade associations, workforce surveys, and hiring data from employers across sectors.
market signals
news events, policy changes, and technology releases that shift the automation landscape.
sector ETF proxies
quarterly sentiment data from real-world sector ETFs (XHB, XLK, XLV, XLI, etc.) mapped to each profession category.
global labor data
international workforce data from OECD, ILO, and national statistics agencies across 40+ countries for cross-market validation.
every data point, collected globally
automation doesn't respect borders. if AI replaces translators in germany, it replaces them everywhere. the index reflects that.
every data point feeding into the survival index is collected from a global scope — not just US markets. we aggregate labor statistics, automation research, wage data, and industry reports from OECD nations, emerging markets, and international labor organizations to build a complete picture of how each profession is evolving worldwide.
this matters because local snapshots lie. a profession might look safe in one country while getting automated across the ocean. global collection catches early signals — if warehouse workers are being replaced in south korea today, the ripple hits the US within 18 months.
the result: more variation, more accurate prediction data, and fewer blind spots. when you see a score on hardhat, it's informed by what's happening to that profession everywhere on earth — not just your zip code.
BLS occupational data, canadian labour force survey, mexico INEGI workforce reports. primary market for salary and demand benchmarks.
eurostat labor statistics, UK ONS data, german IAB employment research. strong AI automation research from northern europe.
japan MHLW labor data, south korea KOSIS, australian ABS workforce surveys. leading indicators for robotics and manufacturing automation.
ILO global employment trends, OECD future of work reports, world bank human capital index. cross-market validation and trend synthesis.